An article in Biz Report (full details below) predicts the end of direct mail and the complete take over of email as a form of marketing. They say that ”direct mail efforts will decline almost 40% over the next five years from 2008′s $49.7 billion in annual spend to $29.8 by the end of 2013.”
That’s the bit that will make the headlines… but there’s a sting in the tail.
Borrell also says that, ”Managing large e-mail marketing campaigns require database marketing expertise, a savvy sales force, adequate e-mail management software, familiarity with the rules and regulations and a lot of patience.”
And this is where the issue is.
No one in their right mind would try and write, produce, direct and place a TV campaign in house – everyone knows it needs expertise. Quite a few firms have tried to do the whole direct mail thing themselves – but over time have found that a) it is a pain in the whatnot to try and mail out in house, and b) the apparently simple act of writing a direct mail piece is not a simple act after all.
Now the same realisations are starting to appear with email. Anyone can go out and buy an email list and get the list sent out for a few pennies an address – less with some of the very dubious lists. But response rates, which are always low to begin with on cheap and cheerful lists, can deteroirate quickly.
In other words, it may be cheap to send out the emails but if you only get a tiny response rate, business declines quickly.
There are email lists however which can deliver response rates which are close to direct mail response rates – but even these lists can fail if they are overused, or if they are used to send out the same old messages over and over again. Or of course if the messages sent out are poorly written (not in the sense of bad English but in the sense of being poor in terms of being effective sales items) then the results slip back down.
I think we are heading towards a more complex situation in which
a) some firms that have tried email are heading back to direct mail in order to get the bulk volumes up
b) there is a growing realisation that email lists vary in quality dramatically – and as a result the notion of buying cheap email and trying to run the business is running into the sand
I believe direct mail is already bouncing back (certainly at HHM our DM sales in June are heading back upwards) and will exist alongside email – with firms alternating postal and email sales in future. There’s details of our direct mail postal lists on http://www.hamilton-house.com/gateways/lists.html. There’s details of our email lists on www.yesmail.org.uk
Original article…
http://www.bizreport.com/2009/05/borrell_predicts_demise_of_direct_mail_rise_of_email.html
Tony Attwood